Two new positive Covid test results have been recorded in Orkney. This brings the cumulative total in the islands to 89.
The stats for Scotland, 29th June are as follows:
- 3,118 new cases of COVID-19 reported*
- 27,875 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
- 11.6% of these were positive
- 1 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
- 20 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
- 215 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
- 3,781,887 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,701,195have received their second dose
Remember FACTS
You should:
- wear a face covering
- avoid crowded places
- clean hands and surfaces regularly
- stay 2m away from other people
- self-isolate and get tested if you have COVID-19 symptoms
- download the Protect Scotland app
And when travelling to and from the islands, get tested.
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I am not sure that the government statistics provide a true picture. Positivity rate can be calculated as our government does: as a percentage of positive test results in relation to the overall number of tests conducted. But there is another approach which some countries utilise: The relation between individuals tested and positive cases identified. The Scottish government has switched from this approach long time ago. However, I find this may provide more meaningful results, hence I have continued to work out the day-to-day difference of ‘people in Scotland … tested at least once’. This number is obviously much lower than the number of tests conducted. For example: This number (difference between yesterday and today) is 8,531. Of these individuals 3,118 tested positive. On the basis of the measure people tested/postive cases identified this would give a positivity rate of 36.5% (up from 26.3% the week before).Even if allowing for uncertainties (i.e. some under- or overreporting of individuals) these numbers are concerning, because it would mean that over a third of the ones tested are found to be positive. And obviously this can translate into hospitalisations, ICU treatments and deaths, albeit with a time-lag, some mitigating seasonal effects (which are hard to calculate) as well as the safeguard that restrictions are not yet completely abandoned and also some mitigating effect through the vaccination rollout.
Obviously, we cannot sit in a glasshouse because there is a virus out there. But we could – and should – probably continue to stick to some precautionary measure a while longer. Mask wearing, for example, doesn’t hurt most of us and there is no need to abandon it when it will no longer be mandatory. Keeping a bit of a physical distance to others, where appropriate, also isn’t too difficult. It is a bit too early to throw all precautions in the wind. Because if this takes off again (which it could although we hope it won’t), our economy and our NHS will be shattered.
Learning to live with the virus, or should I say learning to live with the results of ‘not ideal’ policy responses, does not mean to let the virus rampage through society.