On the 4th of July the UK will go to the polls to elect members to sit in the House of Commons: Scotland 57 MPs, England 543, Wales 32, Northern Ireland 18.
According to the Resolution Foundation there are big “economic uncertainties that the next government may need to confront, including a possible £12 billion black hole in the public finances from a productivity downgrade, higher market interest rates and infected-blood compensation.”
The report goes on to further itemise other costs awaiting the next government which ‘could increase the size of the fiscal black hole to around £33 billion.’
James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said:
“Whoever wins the election could be confronting a fiscal hole of £12 billion, if today’s uncertainties turn into bad news after the election. And if the next government wants to avoid a fresh round of austerity, that black hole could rise to over £33 billion.”
Whatever the promises being made by the two main political parties to win power, once there, there will be cuts. The Orkney News has been looking at the manifesto pledges in more detail and allowing our readers to decide on their merit, or not.
The Manifesto, Scottish National Party (SNP) ‘A Future Made In Scotland’ states that there is a ‘conspiracy of silence between Labour and the Conservatives on the cuts to come and on the damage of Brexit “
Early on in the election campaign, Leader of the SNP, John Swinney, highlighted the report from the Resolution Foundation and that of the Institute of Fiscal Studies.
On Labour’s Manifesto the Institute said:
“The top-up to day-to-day spending on public services would be around £5 billion in 2028–29. This is relatively modest, meaning overall day-to-day spending after this year is now set to grow annually by 1.2% on average in real terms, rather than 1% each year under current government plans.
“This would be insufficient to avoid real-terms cuts in some areas of spending, especially since much of the additional money is earmarked for ‘protected’ areas – in particular, the NHS and schools – Bee Boileau, Research Economist at IFS,
“‘unprotected’ areas would instead face real-terms cuts of between 1.2% and 2.9%, needing a top-up of £6 to £16 billion in 2028–29 to be avoided.”
And on the Conservative Manifesto Paul Johnson, IFS Director, said:
“What the manifesto did not tell us was where the £10 to £20 billion of cuts to spending on unprotected public services, as implied by the March Budget, might come from. Indeed the billions of savings from cutting civil service numbers and the rest noted in the manifesto have been earmarked to fund the additional defence spending, and would come on top of those cuts.
“This manifesto remains silent on the wider problems facing core public services – and if you think those civil servants, management consultants and quangos were delivering anything, these plans imply an even tougher time than set out back in March.”
This is what the electorate are not being told by Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak – either by deliberate omission or by vagueness in answers to direct questions.
It is difficult to resist becoming disillusioned with politics when faced with the slidey nature of the UK’s political leaders and their hundreds of candidates expecting the votes of the public but keeping them in the dark over the consequences of voting for them.
However, in this year when commemorations have taken place for the D-Day landings and the sacrifice made by that exceptional generation who fought for the freedoms we have today – it’s important to exercise one of those freedoms – our right to choose who represents us.
The First Past the Post System is a poor one but it’s what we currently have at UK General Elections. In Scotland, we can only elect 57 out of a total of 650 MPs who will sit and vote on the cuts which will be coming. As you come to place your cross in the box think what is the best, not just for yourself, but for your children, grandchildren, and those most vulnerable in the community, because the cuts will hit hard. Every vote does count and a high turnout of the electorate would demonstrate that people are still engaged with politics and holding to account those who will be elected on their manifesto pledges.
What the future is for Scotland depends on the choice you make, on your vote.
Thursday 4 July – polling day
Polling booths will be open between 7am and 10pm. Counting of votes begins when the polls close.
The candidates standing in the Orkney and Shetland constituency are as follows:
Fiona Grahame