Researchers have estimated the current chances and characteristics of extreme hot episodes in the UK, and how they have changed over the last 6 decades.
Gillian Kay, PhD, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, explained:
“Our findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.”
The team found that temperatures several degrees above those recorded during the UK’s heatwave in July 2022 are plausible in today’s climate, with a simulated maximum of over 45°C (113°F).
The likelihood of 40°C (104°F) is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Moreover, the chance of 40°C will likely continue to rise as the climate warms. The investigators estimate that there is approximately a 50% chance of again exceeding 40°C in the next 12 years.
Through multiple storylines of how temperatures could evolve through the summer season, they also found that prolonged heatwaves of over a month above 28°C (82°F) are possible in southeast England today. These storylines are valuable for modeling and stress testing.
Click on this link to access, Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures, published in the journal Weather.
Weather projections suggest that Winter will see increases in rainfall but with drier summers.
As the world warms, the UK is likely to have hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, according to the Met Office.
Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy downpours could become more frequent and more intense. Many scientists are concerned.
We are already seeing the impacts of climate change, but the level of global warming we reach and by when will depend primarily on the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
To some, warming weather may not seem like such a big deal. But even the smallest incremental changes in climate can have far-reaching effects.
Temperatures above 30C for two or more days can trigger a public-health warning. In the 1990s, this happened about once every four years for locations in the South. By the 2070s, projections suggest it could be as frequently as four times per year – 16 times more often, if we do not curb our emissions. – What difference will climate change make?
