There were 2,704 additional seasonal deaths in the winter of 2024/2025 in Scotland – almost one in five of which were due to flu – according to figures from National Records of Scotland.

In total there were 22,272 deaths between December 2024 and March 2025, an increase of 1.3% in the number of deaths compared to the previous winter.

NRS Head of Vital Events Statistics Phillipa Haxton said: 

“The illnesses most associated with increased deaths in winter are flu, dementia, and coronary heart disease.

“Increased winter deaths are linked to age. In winter 2024 to 2025, there were 18 per cent more deaths among people aged 85 or older compared to the months before and after winter. In the under 65 age group there were 9 per cent more deaths in winter.”

The causes of death with the largest seasonal increase in winter 2024/25 were:

• influenza (530 additional deaths),
• dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (480 additional deaths),
• coronary (ischaemic) heart disease (300 additional deaths),
• chronic lower respiratory disease (250 additional deaths),
• other circulatory diseases (190 additional deaths),
• pneumonia (170 additional deaths),
• other respiratory system diseases (150 additional deaths),
• other mental and behavioural disorders and nervous system diseases (150     additional deaths), and
• cerebrovascular disease (120 additional deaths)

Figures for Orkney show a regionally different picture for the islands.

Period deaths registered	December – March Winter	August – November	April – July	Increased mortality index Orkney	Increased mortality index Scotland
2010/11	84	72	69	19%	14.3%
2011/12	63	67	73	X	8%
2012/13	87	71	89	9%	11.2%
2013/14	76	68	69	11%	9.4%
2014/15	78	57	76	17%	22.6%
2015/16	75	67	75	6%	16.1%
2016/17	82	77	91	X	14.9%
2017/18	95	86	71	21%	26.2%
2018/19	87	70	86	12%	11.3%
2019/20	77	63	83	5%	2.6%
2020/21	102	83	68	35%	22.7%
2021/22	93	89	85	7%	6.3%
2022/23	109	98	73	27%	20.4%
2023/24	84	101	85	X	8.9%
2025 provisional	82	75	75	9%	13.8%

The increased winter mortality index is the number of additional winter deaths divided by the average number of deaths in a four month non winter period expressed as a percentage. The increased winter mortality index has not been calculated when the number of additional winter deaths was negative – shown as X.

The seasonal increase in influenza deaths in Scotland (530 additional deaths) was the largest seasonal increase recorded for this cause in at least the past 15 years.

Very few deaths are directly due to cold weather (e.g. hypothermia); in each full calendar year since 2019 there have been fewer than 10 deaths from ‘exposure to excessive natural cold’.

Fiona Grahame

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