The Scottish Government has warned that a no-deal Brexit would hammer Scotland’s economy, with national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predicted to fall by up to 7%.
The Chief Economic Advisor to Scotland reports that a no-deal Brexit has the potential to push the Scottish economy into recession, with unemployment rising and trade and investment disrupted. If prolonged, the shock of Scotland’s departure from the EU could lead to significant structural change in the economy.
The report warns that Orkney will be be one of hardest hit places in Scotland in a no-deal scenario. The report notes Orkney will face economic shock and possible job losses, noting that over 25% of the workforce in Orkney will be exposed to economic damage from a no-deal Brexit.
The report highlights that rural Scotland may be at serious risk with agriculture, food and fishing sectors most exposed to economic shock and job losses.
Previous research has already shown the damage of the Tories’ proposed Brexit deal, which would see a 6% fall in GDP by 2031, costing each person in Orkney £1,600.
Local MSP Maree Todd,SNP said:
“These new figures are yet another stark warning that a no-deal Brexit would be devastating for communities in Orkney.
“A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable – but we know that Theresa May’s deal is dead in the water, with even her own party refusing to accept it. The SNP has fought tooth and nail to seek an extension to the Article 50 process, and find compromise to protect Scotland’s interests.
“But Scotland is being ignored by Westminster and it’s no wonder people have completely lost trust in the UK Government.
“As Tory and Labour politicians ignore Scotland’s interests and stand in the way of us making decisions over our future, more and more people are drawn to the opportunities and hope for the future that independence offers.
“We need to stop the clock on Brexit, rule out No Deal, which would cause economic damage to Orkney, and prevent the Tories dragging Scotland out of the EU against our will.”
The report states :
The agriculture, food and fishing sectors are among those who have a particularly high level of exposure under a No Deal Brexit. As employment in these sectors tends to be highest in more rural areas, such regions may be particularly exposed to Brexit.