Researchers from the University of Cambridge, Harvard University and the California Institute of Technology have found that the fossil fuel industry rarely respond to online discussions about extreme weather such as storms, droughts, extreme temperatures and wildfires. 

What they do instead is to boost up their own industry’s sustainability projects to subtly reset online conversations about climate change by ignoring discussions of extreme weather.

Over half a million social media posts on X (formerly Twitter) were studied using artificial intelligence-assisted language/rhetoric analysis to reveal how fossil fuel companies, intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) interact online in conversations about climate change, including responses to climate change-related extreme weather. 

Fossil fuel firms were more likely to respond to an increase in NGO and IGO posting about the oil industry’s support for Science Technology Engineering and Maths (STEM) and praise for corporate sustainability initiatives. 

Additionally, fossil fuel companies are also more likely to post about any actions taken to mitigate air pollution with a positive tone, whilst posting more negatively about “phony paid protesters” and “false allegations”. 

Assistant Professor Ramit Debnath, a Cambridge Zero Fellow at the University of Cambridge explained:

“When fossil fuel companies ‘cherry-pick’ which climate information they react to, this can bias how their audience thinks about climate change.

“Climate misinformation like this can fuel climate change denialism and delay climate action.” 

According to forecasts from the UN body for assessing science related to climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), immediate action is required to limit the rise in average global temperatures from pre-industrial times to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a tipping point for the intensification of catastrophic weather events such as extreme heat, storms, droughts and floods. 

The latest IPCC report already notes a growing frequency of extreme weather driven by climate change. This summer (2023) saw record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires across North America, Europe and Asia, while regions of North Africa experienced catastrophic flooding. 

The IPCC also reports rampant misinformation on social media as a significant barrier to tackling the climate crisis.

Misinformation can include emphasising favourable interpretations of events or data, or re-framing conversations to fit preferred narratives, both of which create an unbalanced view of climate change. 

Dr Debnath continued:

“Before we can begin to tackle these misinformation campaigns, we first need to understand how they are designed and spread.

“Using the vast amount of data on social media, we can track how posts change through time and use powerful new artificial intelligence (AI) tools to spot interesting patterns.” 

Researchers analysed posts of X-users from 2014-2021 using machine learning (AI) -driven topic modelling to investigate how fossil fuel companies, IGOs and NGOs interact online to shape conversations about climate change.

They measured the strength of this online interaction by using methods used to model macroeconomic shocks over time to analyse 30 conversation topics. These included topics such as “corporate sustainability”, “renewables”, “climate action” and “protect biodiversity”. 

Among the almost 700,000 posts on X, their analysis found clear patterns across each stakeholder in the timing of their posts about climate change relative to each other and to environmental events. 

“The voice of science is clear. Its message is unequivocal. Climate change is caused by human activities, it is widespread, it is rapid, and it is intensifying. The changes that we witness are of a magnitude unprecedented over centuries and thousands of years. Every part of the world is affected, and some impacts – such as the continued rise in sea levels – are irreversible.

Current trends in greenhouse gas emissions and climate action are incompatible with a sustainable, equitable world. Over a century of burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and unsustainable use of resources has led to a global warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius. As a result, we witness greater and more frequent temperature extremes, and more intense and more extreme weather events.

Climate change is an imminent threat to the health of our planet, our livelihoods, our well-being, and indeed the very existence of other species sharing this world with us. It is an existential threat for small island states and low-lying coastal areas. It warrants an urgent response. Losses and damages inflicted by climate change are now a reality and part of our future.” – Jim Skea IPCC Chair’s remarks – North-South Prize of the Council of Europe

The researchers found that Fossil fuel companies rarely made changes to their online communications as a result of extreme weather. Meanwhile, IGOs were more likely to post about gas company advertising after certain types of extreme weather, such as wildfires and droughts. 

Additionally, fossil fuel companies were unlikely to respond to “climate action” topics when prompted by IGOs and NGOs. But they were much more reactive to topics such as “corporate sustainability” (about 9% more likely if prompted by NGOs) and “industry support for STEM” (about 7% more likely if prompted by IGOs). 

The research paper concludes with a warning on the role of industry-level communication in shaping and ultimately dividing public opinion into different streams of misinformed views. 

“Social media gives organisations the power to deliver carefully constructed narratives which echo around their audience,” said Dr Debnath.

“Over-emphasising greenwashing topics whilst avoiding others is a tool for fossil fuel companies to ‘re-frame’ climate change and avoid accountability.” 

Do fossil fuel firms reframe online climate and sustainability communication? A data-driven analysis is published in npj Climate Action

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite is measuring the height of nearly all water on Earth’s surface, providing one of the most detailed, comprehensive views yet of the planet’s oceans and freshwater lakes and rivers. The satellite is a collaboration between NASA and the French space agency, CNES (Centre National d’Études Spatiales).

The animation shows sea surface height anomalies around the world: Red and orange indicate ocean heights that were higher than the global mean sea surface height, while blue represents heights lower than the mean. Sea level differences can highlight ocean currents, like the Gulf Stream coming off the U.S. East Coast or the Kuroshio current off the east coast of Japan. Sea surface height can also indicate regions of relatively warmer water – like the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during an El Niño – because water expands as it warms.

Fiona Grahame