I recently read an excellent article by David Kauders FRSA arguing for federalism in UK political governance . ( RSA Journal 2nd quarter 2024 …I’m a slow reader .) 

Just because it was excellent doesn’t imply that I agree with his views .

He was reflecting on what seems like a continual descent in respect for UK politics and politicians . He didn’t suggest but I am going to,  that this could also reflect a causal relationship in the rise of populism and the decline of “ traditional” political parties . While they would argue strongly otherwise , for many the “ different” politics of the new Labour Government looks oddly like the last,  certainly in terms of its predilection towards own goals that have nothing to do with political output . 

Kauders talks ( accurately in my opinion ) on the caustic effect of 84% the UK population returning MPs in England and on the diminishing  prospects of other parts of the UK being adequately heard to encourage their sense of Union. He argues instead for a written constitution with a People’s Council replacing the House of Lords and Privy Council with five unicameral legislatures; one federal and four national. 

In getting to his recommendation he reflects that 90% of the UK population feel the entire political system requires reform, reflects upon the disjointed approach to policy that seems to undermine the basic tenets of society while attempting to actually support them. He speaks about too much regulatory weight being given to market – orientated economics . In a rich country we have seen a drop  of 10% of national output going to employment and that is reflected in the scandalous issues of poverty that we have and the appalling lack of access to services, especially health services . 

Here is the annoying part. I agree with all of that ! What I don’t agree with is the notion that Federalism is the best vehicle to solve the issues . 

He correctly,  in my opinion, speaks of the different cultures in the four nations but then goes on to say that this  reflects the need for a federal approach . I have to differ . 

He speaks of a “simple” solution to apportion numbers of members for the Federal and People’s Council using a segment of the Fibonacci series. ( Researching that took me to a place my mind hadn’t anticipated when I woke up .)  

That would see for instance eight representatives from Northern Ireland, thirteen from Wales , twenty one from Scotland and thirty four from England making an assembly of 76 members. 

That counters inequality – how ? 

To me it is no better than the current system and quite how you explain to England that with 84% of the population they get under 45% of the say is beyond my diplomatic capabilities . I have enough trouble explaining proportional representation in Scotland. I may go to hell for saying this but I’m not sure that explaining Fibonacci mathematics to the cultural mindset that felt Brexit would be a good idea is going to be successful. 

“ Fibonacci? Sounds foreign! “

Putting the mathematics aside there are other more persuasive reasons . I’m assuming the plan would be to put;  foreign affairs, the armed forces and the Exchequer in the hands of the Federal level? Ok, shall we experiment? Every nation is different. We are saying to each that they have responsibility for growing their own economies but under that system they can’t differentially allocate investment beyond what is proportionality acceptable. Pause for a moment and look at the economic growth of Ireland. They are anticipating economic growth by investing before it happens in the infrastructure that a future Ireland will need. So, if Scotland wants to follow that political and economic methodology  but Wales doesn’t? What happens? 

But perhaps we should do this differently and allocate the Exchequer and monetary management systems to each Nation. How do we begin that process by allocating financial capital? How do we  establish the revenue functions in each Nation? Do we recognise that Scotland almost certainly would want to rejoin the EU while perhaps other parts of the UK may  not? What havoc would that play? 

I am not in favour of simple solutions for complicated problems. But sometimes the complicated solutions for those complicated problems can also be so labyrinthine that it is difficult to find a way through the rather misty forest . Sometimes you have to take the simple solution, knowing that it will be imperfect and work your way backwards to deal with the fall out. 

I’m English. I came to Scotland in 2006 . I came believing in DEVO Max and federalism . I changed my mind after a month . Politically;  Scotland is  predominantly a social democratic country, with political instincts much more akin to Nordic Countries than to the South of England , especially . I laughed once when I met someone from Newcastle who asked if Scotland could  adopt the North East . The experiment with the Blue wall in the North East fell at the first hurdle. 

The logic for an Independent  Scotland to rejoin the EU is inescapable. Far from being too Wee and too Poor, we are a wealthy nation with significant assets and potential . We lack investment and if anyone goes down the “ but England subsidises every Scots person “ route, please get a grip of yourself and have a look at the mathematics without a Union filter.

Would Independence be easy? Certainly not but the mistakes we make would be ours. Within Europe there are 17 independent countries with smaller populations, the largest of those is Norway and Scoland’s population is larger than theirs. Look at their prosperity. Access to strong neighbours would be essential but not just one strong neighbour with an increasingly differing political outlook to ours . 

Where Kauders is right is in his analysis that the Union is failing, but his solutions are in my opinion somewhat outdated . Federalism works when the cultures can support and sustain one another reflecting their different assets, skills and outlooks. 

The USA is a prime example of how that could work, and a prime example right now  of what happens when the cultures are polarised . Ours are becoming increasingly polarised . Populism thrives on polarisation . 

Kauders suggested without political change that the Union would fracture . He is right but Federalism is not the answer, that ship has sailed.