“I’m an optimist who brings a raincoat” (Harold Wilson)

Where do you start with all this? This is already the most extraordinary election campaign I’ve ever known, and we’re only on day three.

I was listening to Rory Stewart’s podcast yesterday and he had a number of theories why Sunak has called it now. One, there’s a tiny bit of good news on the economic front (although the long term forecast is grim). Secondly, he thought he might get at least one plane to Rwanda before July 4th – although he now admits that won’t happen. But the most interesting theory is that he’s been lobbied by his own MPs who know they are toast and just want to lose quickly and then get on with the rest of their lives. Think about that. Incredible.

Their only attack line seems to be “better the devil you know”, but things are so bad that won’t even work. We stopped fearing the Deil years ago. And there’s no sense that they’ve got the kind of killer line (“Labour’s secret tax plan”) that let them win from behind in 1992. They’re going to lose big. Although God help us all, despite their campaign slogan Labour under Starmer are the very antithesis of a party of change.

One thing I’ve noticed already is that as far as the big parties in Westminster and the London media are concerned this election has nothing to do with Scotland – just look at the panel in Question Time last night. The election is also in the middle of the Scottish school holidays, when we’re all on the beach (or watching us playing a Euros quarter final)! So that, along with a general feeling of apathy, could mean a poor turnout.

My feeling is that the Tories will continue to do badly in Scotland and that Labour might not make as many gains as they think. That’s not wishful thinking, by the way, just a feeling that Starmer’s brand – he’s seen as yet another Islington lawyer trying to out-flagshag the Tories who is vehemently against Scotland’s right to choose – will restrict their opportunities to gain seats here. Plus Sarwar is clearly not in charge, just as Douglas Ross doesn’t really run the Tories. If I were John Swinney I’d be making that point strongly, and pointing out the strongly neo-liberal agenda that Starmer stands for and that his branch manager in Edinburgh will be expected to adopt.

Re the SNP and independence. Firstly, Humza unwittingly took one for the team by doing what he should have done a year ago by ditching the Bute House Agreement. We’re back to what we should be which is a number of minority parties trying to find consensus on a policy by policy basis. Plus I think Swinney has got off to a good start, although criticising the standards committee over the Matheson affair yesterday was a terrible look. His first misstep.

I guess all governments eventually run out of road, and it’s been seventeen years for the SNP. I think in some ways that’s a bigger factor than campervangate.

The good news is that the party and the movement have largely decoupled. The polls are fluctuating wildly but support for independence is still 50% or thereabouts. The question is therefore not whether there’s an appetite for independence but what the mechanism is to bring it about. Certainly, in an age when Alister Jack talks about a “unionist alliance” in Holyrood post 2026 and Sunak compares half the Scottish electorate to Hamas, the chances of getting another section 30 order are zero. What kind kind of a Rottweiler is it that willingly gives you your ball back? I’ve a few thoughts on how we might do that, but that’s another column! But sending our best folk to a neighbouring country whose political worldview is diametrically opposed to our own is not the solution. Indeed, by doing so we are part of the problem.

One final thought. Big picture. The latest census sees 66% of Scots identifying as Scots only, a massive jump in a decade that suggests a greater confidence in our culture and identity, and it’s surely less of a leap to believing we can run our own affairs when we genuinely feel good about ourselves.

Keep the faith people, and remember to bring your raincoat.