By John Mowat

When UK Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a Westminster General Election would take place on Thursday 4th July it is fair to say that the media along with everyone else were taken by surprise.

Labour have been leading the Tories in most UK polls, for some time.

It is fair to say that the Hard Tory Brexit, outside everything, has gone badly with voters, the UK falling to the bottom of the 7 Countries economic league.

The UK economy took longer than most European economies to recover from Brexit while annual inflation and the associated Cost of Living Crisis has been a bigger problem. The restrictions of the Hard Brexit, new trading hurdles, greatly added costs, increased bureaucracy and red tape has made life difficult for importers, exporters and investors.

The restrictions of Brexit have made the UK a much less attractive place for foreign investment, particularly from countries in Asia, and North America. Access to European markets from the UK is no longer straightforward.

The evidence of studies by the Westminster based OBR and university research institutions indicates that the overall Brexit hit to the UK economy is around -6 %. In export orientated Scotland this economic hit has been estimated at -8 %.

Ireland and the Netherlands have gained large numbers of jobs which were formerly based in the UK, followed by Germany, France & Belgium.

Over the past few years Boris Johnson’s tenure as UK Prime Minister ended in chaos. His replacement Liz Truss fared even worse, finding herself totally out of her depth as Prime Minister, lasting only one month. Her disastrous budget highlighting unfunded tax cuts for the richest people quickly unravelled.

Rishi Sunak, a former UK Chancellor, became Prime Minister in October 2022.

Meanwhile the loss of the ability to trade seamlessly with 27 EU and 4 more EEA Countries, following the Hard Tory Brexit has been keenly felt.

Smaller and medium sized companies in Scotland embraced this ability to trade seamlessly with the EU for almost 50 years, with Scotland exporting twice as much, per head, as the Rest of the UK, to Europe.

The loss of European structural funding has hit the Highlands and Islands even harder than the rest of Scotland, slowing down the completion of infrastructure projects.

Depopulation has returned to the more fragile rural and islands of Scotland and has again become a serious concern.
In Scotland the number of elected Scottish Tory MPs, at Westminster, is predicted to fall considerably; the Hard Tory Brexit proving extremely unpopular.

UK Labour Leader Keir Starmer has U-turned on many long term Labour policies.

Back in 2016, 80 % of Labour MPs opposed Brexit, as did the majority of their Labour voters. Previous Leader Jeremy Corbyn, made the mistake of trying to ignore Brexit back in the lead up to the December 2019 General Election, hoping his lukewarm enthusiasm for the EU not affect the result

In the event Labour was badly defeated by the Tories.

Starmer now tells us he backs the Hard Tory Brexit, along with the loss of seamless access to Mainstream European Markets. He has been sitting on the fence trying to gain as many former Tory votes in England as possible.

The problem ,in the middle of an election campaign, is that many people no longer know where he and Labour stand on many issues.

The Libdems are expected to gain support from former Tory voters in Southern and Eastern England.

While the Hard Brexit has politically destabilised Northern Ireland, its economy remains buoyant having been able to maintain its unhindered access to European Markets.

The SNP, Plaid, The Greens and some Northern Irish Members led the Opposition to the Hard Brexit with a degree of support from the LibDems back in 2016.

How this election will affect the number of Scottish MPs elected is more difficult to predict.

There is little enthusiasm for a General Election in July, in Scotland, for a July Election, as schools close and thoughts turn to the summer holidays along with the European Nations Football Championships in Germany.

The UK Tabloid papers, the Dailies Mail, Express, Sun and the Daily Telegraph relentlessly attack the Scottish Parliament, and its democratic decisions. The Daily Record supports Labour while the National backs the SNP.

These days there are lots of social media sites which cover news in a variety of ways. Fake news also becomes a major problem.

The Tories and increasingly Labour, routinely attack Scottish education, schools and teachers. While there are challenges, Scottish education at all levels, is performing well. There is no evidence of falling standards. Indeed, when one speaks to primary and secondary school parents, the majority are happy with the professionalism of teachers and classroom assistants.
Young people continue to perform well when SQA results are analysed. Meanwhile performance by young people in arts, music, culture and sports remains impressive.

The SNP and Green Party cooperation in the Scottish Parliament worked well for almost two years. However tensions came to the fore over economic cooperation and the focus on Green issues. The greens allowed unpopular gender related issues to come to a head, leading to the ending of political cooperation with the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.

John Swinney was widely regarded as a safe pair of hands in any Ministerial role he has played. He has been Scottish First Minister for a short time, leading a stronger team, with an increased emphasis on cross party cooperation. This is hoped to lead to better decision making. Kate Forbes, as Deputy Leader, gives business & economic development a much more central role in the Government of Scotland, at Holyrood.

Further uncertainties include the effects of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and its close relationship with its main arms supplier, Iran. Iran is closely involved in arming various terrorist related groups in the Middle East. The subsequent Israeli – Gaza war following the 7th October attack on Israel and its subsequent reaction has also filled the news headlines. The loser, as in many wars, are the innocent people in Gaza caught up in the mayhem. The roles of Russia and Iran in both the Ukraine war Middle East and the Gaza War have upset the status quo and added an air of unpredictability to the current UK General Election.

In Scotland the Tories are expected to lose a number of MPs. Labour Leader’s Starmer’s support of Hard Brexit may yet limit Labour gains in Scotland. The LibDem Scottish Campaign has been fairly low key to date. The number of Scottish MPs elected to Westminster will drop to 57, The Greens and Alba have candidates in a number of seats. How this will affect the final result is at present uncertain Polls tell us that the SNP may lose a number of elected MPs. John Swinney has been Leader for a short time. This is expected to work in the SNP’s favour but by how much it remains to be seen.

Meanwhile a lot of campaigning and media cover will be given to the first July Election in living memory.

The full list of candidates for this election will be published after Friday 07 June 2024

You have until Tuesday 18 June 2024 to register to vote if you have not already done so. Link: Register to Vote

At this UK General Election you will require Voter ID if you are voting in person. Find out more and apply for free voter ID now – Voter ID