By Mike Macleod.

For Scottish Labour, this was a campaign from Hell, which left us worse off than when we started, despite the immense efforts of everyone in the Scottish Party.  The extreme unpopularity of Westminster Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer became increasingly apparent during the campaign. 

As a result our positive policy proposals were basically ignored, as was the poor record of the SNP Government.  This was despite the brave attempt by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in February to distance himself from Keir and politely but firmly suggest that Keir should stand down.

However Scottish Labour’s defeat cannot be explained entirely by the Keir effect.  This masked the underlying issue which Scottish Labour has sadly failed to come to terms with since the 2014 Independence Referendum – it cannot understand why people vote SNP.

In 1999 Labour won 56 seats and 38% of the constituency vote, and was able to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.  Today the SNP has 58 seats and 38% of the constituency vote, having replaced Labour as the natural governing party of Scotland quite some time ago.  Meanwhile Scottish Labour, down to only 17 seats, can only dream of the 35 seats and 28% vote share the SNP had in 1999. 

Labour is now like a character in a Science Fiction movie, who fires off all their ammunition and cannot understand why their opponent is untouched.  Labour offers carefully thought-out policies for a better Scotland within the Union.  Whereas the SNP is based on raw emotion: pride in Scotland, and hope for a better future.  The SNP Mission Statement is expressed best in the Declaration of Arbroath:

“It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.”

Effectively the SNP is the embodiment of the Independence cult, rather than a normal political party.  With the consequence that its supporters ignore rational criticism.

As the critical mass of SNP voters grew over the last two decades, it became apparent that an SNP Government cannot be voted out of office.  Regardless of how badly it performs.  For Labour, “one more push” is not going to work – we pushed our hearts out this time.  Some new thinking is needed.

To win in Scotland again, Labour must plunge into the world of emotion.  This means engaging with SNP voters and understanding why they feel profoundly disrespected by the refusal to allow a second Independence Referendum.

Many people will have a relative who enters into what they (but not the relative) consider an unwise relationship.  There are two ways to proceed – let the relationship take its course, accept the “unwise” relationship and continue to interact with the relative and their partner.  Or condemn the relative as stupid and misguided and refuse to talk to them.  In a family relationship most will see this second course only causing grief for everyone.  But this is what Scottish Labour has somehow done with Independence supporters.

Ultimately the solution for Scottish Labour’s woes is:

• Scottish Labour to offer a second Independence Referendum
• Commit to remaining neutral throughout the Referendum Campaign
• And allow its members to campaign on both sides of the argument

It’s well-known a fair number of Scottish Labour members would rather die than allow any of this.  Which is a pity, since such a move might likely cause terminal difficulties for the SNP.

Many of us will be familiar with a martial-arts scenario – a smaller fighter, when confronted by a much larger opponent moving towards them at speed, instead of fighting force with force, simply diverts the large opponent.  The big fella’s own momentum then destroys them.

In just the same way, if IndyRef2 comes along, the SNP is forced in only one direction – to campaign for Independence.  Regardless of public opinion.

When asked the Question “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?” public opinion is around 50% or higher in favour of independence.  Whereas when asked the more neutral question that will be used in IndyRef2: “Should Scotland remain in, or leave, the United Kingdom?” Scottish public opinion consistently splits 60:40 in favour of Remain.

Whatever is said publicly, the SNP cannot want IndyRef2.  Like any Cult leadership, they make a living from promising something that never arrives, and blaming someone else for it.  

They know that when voters consider, as they did in 2014, what will be best for them and their families, few will believe the SNP are competent to run an independent country.  

With a second Referendum defeat, the Scottish Parliament electoral arithmetic must change.

For Labour, supporting IndyRef2 is a massive gamble.  But “At our best when we’re boldest, at our best when we’re Labour.”

Mike Macleod was the Labour party candidate for the Orkney Constituency in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections.