R Number in Scotland Drops to Between 0.6 and 0.8

As Scotland continues to move out of lockdown with news that more facilities will be able to open up next week and that schools may return to full time learning on August 11th the NRS (National Records of Scotland) have published weekly figures which continue to show a decrease in Covid19 related deaths in Scotland.

Download: Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland Week 25 (15 to 21 June 2020)

As of the 21st of June 2020 there had been a total of 4,119 deaths in Scotland where Covid19 was mentioned on the death registration.

The older age group continues to be the most vulnerable and Covid19 deaths in Care Homes accounts for 47% of the total.

For all deaths in Scotland – including those not related to Covid19:

“For the period covering weeks 12 – 25, there were 2,463 excess deaths in care homes (72% above average), 2,329 excess deaths at home or in noninstitutional settings (58% above average) whilst after an early peak, excess deaths in hospitals have fallen and are now only 133 (2%) above average levels. “

In total , sadly, 19 Health and Care staff have died from contracting Covid19.

Table of Deaths in Care Homes

This data is based on management information

Deaths in Care Home Scotland 22nd June 2020

This graph from the NRS  gives more information on the underlying causes of death and over a longer period.

Excess deaths by underlying cause 22nd June 2020

Excess Deaths by underlying cause of death* and location, weeks 12 to 25, 2020

The cumulative reported suspected cases of Covid19 in Care Homes in each NHS Health Board area also gives some cause for optimism that the spread of the virus is under better control in the care home setting.

Cumulative suspected reported covid19 care homes 22nd June 2020

This data is Management Information, collected to support understanding of the progress of COVID-19 cases in Adult Care Homes in Scotland. It is not fully validated and as such there may be variations in the quality of the data and is subject to revision if new information becomes available.

The Care Inspectorate amended their notification system to ask services to notify each individual suspected case of COVID-19 on the basis that the potential presence of COVID-19 in a care home should be notified as soon as possible. We are aware that Health Boards and Local Authorities may be recording an outbreak as occurring where there are 2 or more cases in a care home.

Cases are self-reported by care providers and should be considered suspected COVID-19. Some cases may subsequently have a formal positive test, other cases after testing may prove not to be COVID-19 and some cases will not be tested. It is possible not all cases have been reported by all care homes, or there may be a delay in reporting.

Also provided now is the number of tests being carried out in Care Homes.

This table shows both the cumulative number of tests carried out – staff and residents and the past weekly one.

Numbers of tests - staff and residents by Board 22nd June

The data does not include tests that are carried out by UK routes (regional testing centres and mobile testing) and therefore is likely to underestimate testing for staff. It also does not fully reflect any tests that have been delivered through the Scottish social care portal. It includes care home residents tested in hospital. Care home residents may be tested several times during their hospital stay and prior to discharge.

And this table is the number of people tested  in Care Homes – staff and residents for the week beginning 15th of June

Number of people tested in care homes 22nd June 2020

This data is provisional management information submitted to Scottish Government by NHS Boards and details the number of people (i.e. staff and residents) tested in the last week. The number of tests for staff capture both those undertaken via NHS routes and those done via the Scottish social care portal.

As you can see it is not possible to compare both tables.

Test and Protect

Opening up more of Scotland’s businesses and facilities relies on the successful implementation of the Test and Protect strategy.

Information to residents in Orkney will be going out to all homes this week Test and Protect Advice From NHS Orkney

Testing stats for NHS Orkney for the week of 15th of June are:

NHS Orkney testing 15th of June

In total there have been 9 positive cases of Covid19 reported in Orkney (the 9th case published on June 19th) and sadly 2 people have died from the virus. 9th Confirmed Case of #Covid19 in Orkney

Testing in Scotland continues to be well below capacity. As of 23rd of June:

  • 3,745 tests carried out by NHS Scotland in hospitals, care homes or the community
  • 1,118 drive through and mobile tests were carried out by the UKG Regional Testing Centres (RTCs) in Scotland

You can find more information on this page: Coronavirus (COVID-19): daily data for Scotland

And this is highly recommended: Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

It has excellent information which is easy to access. It includes the statistics on contact tracing – a vital strand of Test and Protect – and the latest on the R number which is now between 0.6 and 0.8.

Reporter: Fiona Grahame



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